New analysis from the Center for Global Development updates the carbon budget overshoot numbers using the same method as Hickel's 2020 paper, but with newer emissions data and population projections. The key finding: Annex II countries, the group with formal climate finance obligations, still account for 60 to 66 percent of excess emissions, but that share has been declining over the past decade. China and the Gulf states are now major overshooters without being on the Annex II list. The note also digs into the consumption versus territorial emissions debate. It argues that both extremes are flawed, and that responsibility for climate damage probably sits somewhere in between. The authors use both measures to show how the results change, and they explain why the 350ppm budget is a more useful benchmark for climate finance than the 1.5C or 2C targets. For anyone tracking climate finance or carbon accounting, this is a useful update because it shows the trend line moving, not just a static snapshot. The data and methodology are transparent enough to check, and the annex explores how different budget choices affect the results.
