A new S&P Global analysis shows the greenhouse gas intensity of Canadian oil sands production fell 31% since 2009, reaching 59 kgCO2e per barrel in 2025. The 13th consecutive year of decline was driven by operational improvements like fleet optimization, waste-heat integration, and shorter maintenance cycles. Mining and steam-assisted gravity drainage projects both contributed to lower average intensity. However, absolute emissions rose 2% year-over-year as production increased by about 150,000 barrels per day. S&P notes that future emissions growth depends on broader deployment of carbon capture and other reduction technologies. The report highlights a key tension: intensity can fall even as total emissions climb when output expands faster than efficiency gains.
