A new analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute finds that the carbon pricing deal between Alberta and the federal government may not deliver meaningful emissions reductions. The deal sets an effective carbon price of $130 per tonne by 2040, weaker and slower than the previous target of $170 by 2030. The institute says reductions are "not really significant" and that a proposed new oil pipeline could keep emissions on a high trajectory through mid-century. Alberta's industrial carbon pricing system, TIER, has been plagued by an oversupply of low-priced credits. Since the deal was signed, TIER credit prices have fallen 25 percent to around $31.50 per tonne. The institute is skeptical that a planned price floor will work, given the complexity of implementation and continued market oversupply. Neither Ottawa nor Alberta has released their own emissions modeling to support the deal's claims.
