A new simulation study projects that Canada's wildfires could cause more than $2.1 trillion in climate damage by 2100, with nearly all of the cost coming from carbon dioxide released by the fires. Firefighting, lost timber, and recreation account for only about 2% of the total. The research, led by Simon Fraser University and Environment and Climate Change Canada, modeled forest fires under different warming paths and compared them against a scenario with no climate change. The study found that in a realistic worst-case scenario of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius of warming, climate change could roughly double the area burned each year by the end of the century. Extra wildfire emissions would add about $42 billion per year in climate damages by 2080 to 2100, based on Canada's social cost of carbon. The authors argue wildfire damage should be included in that cost, and note that a recent U.S. study estimated the increase at 74%. The model also shows that Indigenous communities bear a disproportionate share of wildfire exposure. About 78% of populated areas reached by fires were primarily Indigenous communities, even though those areas make up only 17% of populated land. The projections are likely conservative, since they exclude health care, evacuations, damaged homes, and smoke that travels beyond 31 miles.
