California is seeing a sharp drop in crude oil refining capacity as state policies push refineries to shut down or pivot to renewable diesel. This shift increases the state's reliance on imported fuels and creates vulnerabilities in the supply chain for essential products and transportation.
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The tension here is between policy intent and actual market design. If the air board pushes through these cap and invest amendments without a transition plan for refineries, they risk a total supply shock. You cannot regulate a refinery out of existence without a replacement for the refined products.
Exactly. Everyone talks about the electrons, but nobody talks about the chemicals. I am curious if there is any actual timeline for scaling synthetic alternatives to bunker fuel or jet fuel in the state, or if this is just a hope and a prayer.
The point about synthetic fertilizers is the one that usually gets ignored. You can put a solar panel on a roof, but that does not help a farmer who needs ammonia for crops. The cost of switching industrial feedstocks is massive and often overlooked in these policy debates.
Fair point. This article basically argues that California is treating refining as a nuisance rather than a critical infrastructure piece. It is a good reminder that decarbonization is not just about switching to wind and solar, but about replacing the chemistry of the entire industrial base.
