Buildings cooling energy demand gap: outdated climate models undercount future needs by up to 79%

A new study in Nature Communications finds that global climate planning models severely underestimate future cooling energy demand for buildings. By using decades-old temperature baselines, these models miss the real impact of warming. The gap reaches 23% in modest warming scenarios and 79% in high-emission futures by 2100. Heating demand drops as winters warm, but the net effect hides a growing refrigerant problem from increased air conditioning use. The study shows that while carbon dioxide emissions from buildings may fall overall due to reduced heating, the shift to more cooling introduces F-gas refrigerant leaks that trap heat far more than CO2. This blind spot hits hot, developing countries hardest. The authors recommend updating planning tools with current and projected regional temperatures instead of relying on historical averages. The findings have direct implications for building codes, clean electricity deployment, and efficient cooling technology like heat pumps.