Brazil runoff: Amazon protection vs Bolsonaro's deforestation plan

Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25 will help decide the fate of the Amazon. The country holds roughly 60% of the rainforest, one of the planet's largest carbon sinks. Under Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation removed an area larger than Denmark in four years. Under Lula, enforcement was rebuilt and deforestation has fallen 41%, with 2026 expected to hit a decade low. The article compares the two records and the risks ahead. Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed weakening the rule that keeps 80% of rural land forested, which experts say would open the door to more clearing. Lula, meanwhile, has overseen lower deforestation but still backs new oil exploration. The runoff is not a simple good versus bad story for the climate. For anyone tracking carbon markets, forest policy, or grid stability in South America, the result matters far beyond Brazil. The Amazon's ability to absorb carbon is already fading in places, and the next president's enforcement choices will determine whether that trend continues or reverses.