Brazil's October presidential election could decide the future of the Amazon, since the country holds about 60% of the world's largest rainforest. The leading candidates are President Lula, who cut deforestation by 45% after taking office in 2023, and Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, who has said he does not believe in climate change and has promised to loosen environmental regulations. Lula's goal is zero net deforestation by 2030, while Bolsonaro pledges to end illegal deforestation by 2029, a year ahead of Brazil's current target. Experts warn that Bolsonaro's focus on the word 'illegal' could allow deforestation to rise by legalizing clearing that is currently banned. Deforestation and land-use change are Brazil's largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and the Amazon stores massive amounts of carbon dioxide. The outcome matters for global climate policy and for the credibility of forest-based carbon projects, especially if enforcement tools like satellite monitoring are weakened.
