IMARC Group's new report on Brazil's carbon credits market puts the sector at USD 2.71 billion in 2025, rising to USD 4.59 billion in 2026, with a forecast of USD 31.61 billion by 2034. That works out to a compound annual growth rate of 27.26% over 2026-2034. The growth case rests on stronger corporate demand for offsets, Brazil's developing regulated carbon market, and the country's large base of nature-based projects, especially around the Amazon. The report breaks the market into compliance and voluntary credits, and covers avoidance and removal projects across nature-based and technology-based categories. Key players include Mombak, re.green, Biofilica, and Carbonext. Recent deals show how the market is moving: re.green signed a 20-year agreement with Novo Nordisk to restore around 500 hectares in Pará, expected to generate roughly 87,000 removal credits, and BNDES committed BRL 4.3 billion to seven climate funds including Mombak's Amazon reforestation fund. Verification and credit quality are emerging as central issues. The report highlights satellite monitoring, digital registries, and AI-based restoration analytics as tools to reduce double-counting and improve buyer confidence. For anyone tracking carbon markets in Latin America, this report is a useful baseline, though the high CAGR estimate should be read with the usual caveats around regulatory timing and credit integrity.
