Airlines face growing pressure on their net zero by 2050 pledges as sustainable aviation fuel production remains under 1 percent of global jet fuel use. High capital costs, feedstock limits, and uncertain policy support slow the SAF buildout needed to meet industry targets. European mandates under ReFuelEU require a 2 percent SAF blend from 2025, rising to 70 percent by 2050, but other regions rely on voluntary commitments and tax credits with unclear timelines. Carbon credit markets under CORSIA and voluntary offset programs also face scrutiny over climate integrity. Studies question whether nature based offsets deliver claimed reductions, while travel demand continues to grow in emerging economies. Without stronger demand management or faster SAF scaling, the gap between airline promises and real emissions cuts may widen, potentially raising fares in regulated markets and shifting traffic to less constrained regions.
