Australia's coal mine methane is undercounted. Here's why Safeguard credits may not mean what they seem

Australia's Safeguard Mechanism is meant to cap emissions from large polluters, but coal mine methane may be slipping through. A recent High Court ruling forced planners to consider overseas emissions from coal exports, yet domestic methane from open-cut mines is still underestimated. Aircraft surveys over Queensland mines found roughly 3.6 times the methane reported, and satellite data point to similar gaps in New South Wales. Open-cut and underground mines also share the same emissions intensity target, even though underground mines report nearly six times more emissions per tonne of coal. That lets some open-cut mines earn carbon credits for coming in under a target that is too loose. The government is reviewing methane estimation methods and Safeguard baselines, which is the right moment to tighten both. This article explains why better measurement and separate targets matter, and why domestic emissions deserve the same scrutiny as export emissions. Useful context for anyone tracking Australian carbon policy or credit market integrity.