Aral Sea restoration plan: R$46 billion proposal to refill half the lake and stop 605 million tons of CO2 emissions from dry seabed

Scientists have published a proposal in the journal Science to restore part of the Aral Sea in Central Asia. The plan costs R$46 billion and aims to refill about half of the dried lake bed. The main goal is to prevent the exposed sediments from releasing an estimated 605 million tons of stored CO2 into the atmosphere as organic matter continues to decompose. The research team, led by Rafael Marcé from the Spanish National Research Council, calculated that the dry seabed already emitted 748 million tons of CO2 between 1960 and 2022. Without intervention, another 605 million tons could escape. The proposal targets both ecological recovery and climate mitigation by keeping that carbon locked in the soil. This is a large scale geoengineering and restoration project with a direct carbon benefit. For carbon markets, the avoided emissions could generate credits if properly measured and verified. The plan also raises questions about water sourcing in an arid region, project timelines, and whether the funding will materialize.