A new Carbon Brief analysis estimates that Lula's presidency has prevented at least 20,000 square kilometers of Amazon deforestation since 2022, an area roughly the size of New Jersey. This is based on comparing actual deforestation under Lula to a modeled scenario where Brazil's forest code was not enforced, a proxy for Bolsonaro's governance. Annual deforestation has more than halved from 11,594 km2 in 2022 to 5,731 km2 in 2025, with 2026 expected to hit a record low. The analysis underscores the impact of political leadership on environmental outcomes. Bolsonaro weakened enforcement and budgets, while Lula reinstated action plans and scaled up policing. However, the upcoming election is tight, with Bolsonaro's son Flávio tied in polls. A win for him could reverse these gains, as he supports agribusiness and mining. Experts warn a Bolsonaro victory could drive deforestation to near-record levels, making this election critical for the Amazon and global climate.
