A study published in Science warns that the end of the Amazon Soy Moratorium will lead to at least 1.4 million hectares of additional deforestation in Brazil over the next decade. This could release 745 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, roughly equal to Canada's annual greenhouse gas emissions. The moratorium had been one of the most effective voluntary deforestation agreements, cutting soy-related deforestation to near zero after 2008. The pact collapsed under pressure from soy farmer lawsuits, antitrust investigations, and state laws that removed tax breaks for companies with eco-friendly sourcing. Researchers now project the lost forest area could equal 17 percent of all Amazon deforestation in the past decade. They also warn that undesignated public forests may face increased pressure from land grabs driven by soy's high value. The authors recommend stronger deforestation enforcement in Brazil and more rigorous sourcing demands from importers like the EU and China. Without new commitments, the study suggests the climate and biodiversity gains made under the Lula administration could be reversed.
