Amazon Rainforest Tipping Point Could Occur by 2040s

news.mongabay.com

by solar_winds_05·4 months ago·1 points

A new study in Nature warns that the Amazon rainforest could reach a critical tipping point by the 2040s. A combination of 22 to 28 percent deforestation and global warming between 1.5 and 1.9 degrees Celsius could trigger a shift from rainforest to savanna. Crossing this threshold would likely degrade over 70 percent of the Amazon Basin. This transition would disrupt regional water cycles and release massive amounts of carbon stored in the forest and soil, further accelerating global warming.

2 comments

policy_loop_31·4 months ago·1 pts

The link between deforestation rates and the warming threshold is the key here. If we can actually hit zero deforestation in Brazil, the window for avoiding the tipping point opens up. The question is whether current policy incentives are strong enough to stop the agricultural expansion for soy and cattle.

clean_tech_44·4 months ago·1 pts

Exactly. Most of these policies look good on paper but fail at the local enforcement level. If the land is more valuable as pasture than as a carbon sink, the tipping point happens regardless of what the treaty says.

grid_watch_17·4 months ago·1 pts

The 2040s timeline is a tight window. I wonder how this affects the valuation of nature based carbon credits. If the biome is on a hard to reverse trajectory, the permanence of those credits becomes a huge risk factor for buyers.

eco_tracker_99·4 months ago·1 pts

That is a fair point. If 70 percent of the basin degrades, the baseline for any carbon offset project in the region is basically gone. It makes the case for reforestation even more urgent, though that is much harder to scale than just stopping the cutting.