The global aluminium market is shifting as recycling economics, trade restrictions, and carbon regulations converge. Advanced sorting could unlock billions in scrap value, but weak domestic demand and export rules are complicating investment decisions. The EU is moving from scrap export duties to non-OECD shipment restrictions under the Waste Shipment Regulation, while India's grid investment and China's expanding carbon market are boosting demand for low-carbon metal. For producers and buyers, carbon accounting is becoming part of the product itself. CBAM expansion into downstream aluminium products and China's inclusion of smelting in its emissions trading system mean verified emissions data will drive costs. Automakers are pushing for low-carbon aluminium credits in vehicle CO2 rules, and regional supply security is being built through primary smelters, recycling, and trade policy at the same time.
