A new analysis using Navius Research's gTech/IESD model projects that Alberta's net zero emissions commitment could reduce the province's GDP by $397 billion cumulatively from 2025 to 2050 compared to business as usual. The modeling, prepared for former Alberta public servant Lennie Kaplan, also estimates 126,000 fewer full-time jobs by 2050 and a 1.1 million barrel per day drop in oil production. The report notes the Alberta government has not released its own economic impact assessment despite repeated freedom of information requests. The analysis compares a business-as-usual scenario with a net zero scenario that assumes an economy-wide emissions cap, elimination of the oil and gas emissions cap, and continued investment tax credits for carbon capture and storage. It assumes oil prices and technology costs consistent with Alberta's 2023 climate strategy, including small modular reactors and direct air capture. The report argues the actual costs may be understated because the current carbon price mechanism is not fully defined, and urges the government to either publish its own numbers or reconsider the 2050 target.
