New modeling from Navius Research, prepared for former Alberta government analyst Lennie Kaplan, estimates that Alberta's net zero by 2050 commitment could reduce cumulative GDP by $397 billion between 2025 and 2050 compared to business as usual. That works out to a 3% loss in economic activity. The analysis also projects oil production 14% lower in 2050, oil sands output down 9%, and 126,000 fewer full-time jobs relative to a baseline that keeps current policies in place. The modeling assumes the province takes the lowest-cost path to net zero, including carbon capture, hydrogen, small modular reactors, and direct air capture. It also assumes oil production rises to 7.6 million barrels per day by 2035. The author notes the Alberta government has not released its own economic impact assessment of the commitment, despite repeated requests. He argues the province should either publish its own numbers or drop the 2050 target in favor of more realistic interim goals.
