Alberta and Canada agreed to cap the industrial carbon price at $130 per ton by 2040, instead of the planned $170 by 2030. That change undercuts the revenue model for Varme Energy's $400 million waste-to-energy carbon capture project in Edmonton, which needs higher compliance credit prices to break even. Varme had a baseline guarantee from the Canada Growth Fund at $85 per ton, but full viability required the market to approach $170. With the price path flattened, the project faces cancellation this fall. Industry executives warn that capital grants and tax credits do not help if the back-end carbon asset value collapses. Without allowing credit exports or other fixes, Canada's carbon capture pipeline could stall.
