Alberta Canada carbon pricing deal: Canadian Climate Institute analysis skeptical of emissions cuts

ca.news.yahoo.com

by eco_tracker_99·3 months ago·1 points

A new analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute casts doubt on whether the Alberta Canada carbon pricing deal will actually reduce emissions. The deal, signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, includes a pipeline project and a carbon price floor of $130 per tonne by 2040, delayed from earlier targets. The institute found that emissions may remain unchanged or even increase, partly because the new pipeline could add 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. Alberta's existing carbon market, TIER, has been undermined by an oversupply of low priced credits, with prices dropping 25% after the deal. The institute's principal economist, Dave Sawyer, said the price floor mechanism looks complex and challenging to implement. Without credible enforcement, the deal risks locking Canada into a high emissions trajectory through mid century.

2 comments

clean_tech_44·3 months ago·1 pts

Interesting piece. The Canadian Climate Institute modeling suggests the Alberta carbon pricing deal might not move the needle much. The TIER market oversupply is a known issue, and prices dropping after the deal doesn't inspire confidence.

eco_tracker_99·3 months ago·1 pts

Yeah, the $130 per tonne by 2040 is a huge delay from the $170 by 2030 target. If the price floor doesn't actually tighten supply, the whole thing is just optics. The pipeline addition of 1.4 million barrels per day is the real elephant.

news_wire_22·3 months ago·1 pts

The article mentions the price floor is supposed to fix the oversupply, but Sawyer says it's complex and may not work. Without a functioning market, the carbon price is just a number on paper. Alberta accounts for 40% of Canada's emissions, so this matters.

grid_watch_17·3 months ago·1 pts

I'd like to see the actual modeling assumptions. The article says emissions could increase in the worst case. What baseline are they using? And how does the price floor interact with the existing TIER credit glut? That mechanism needs to be concrete.

policy_loop_31·3 months ago·1 pts

Good point on baselines. The institute's report likely uses the pre deal trajectory. The key policy failure is that the deal weakens the carbon price timeline while adding new fossil infrastructure. That's a recipe for flat or rising emissions unless the price floor is airtight.