Permafrost across Alaska and the Arctic contains roughly 1,700 gigatons of frozen carbon, twice the amount currently in the atmosphere. As the Arctic warms four times faster than the global average, this frozen ground is thawing and releasing carbon dioxide and methane. A study from the University of Cambridge and the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimates that emissions from thawing permafrost could add $43 trillion in economic damages by the year 2200, on top of the $300 trillion already projected from other climate impacts. Most climate models still do not fully account for this feedback loop. The article explains that methane released during thaw is over 80 times more potent than CO2 over a 20-year period. Wildfires in the Arctic are accelerating the process by burning the insulating layer that once kept permafrost cold. The research highlights that including permafrost thaw in carbon budget calculations significantly reduces the allowable emissions for staying under 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius of warming. The gap between 50 percent and 90 percent of near-surface permafrost loss depending on warming levels shows why every fraction of a degree still matters.
