Airlines Face $127B Carbon Compliance Bill by 2035 Under Tightening CORSIA Offset Rules

carbonherald.com

by solar_winds_05·2 months ago·1 points

International airlines could face a cumulative carbon compliance bill of up to $127 billion between 2024 and 2035, driven by a supply-demand mismatch for CORSIA carbon credits. MSCI Carbon Markets projects credit prices could reach $100 per tonne by 2035, nearly eight times current levels, as eligible offset projects fall short of airline demand. Emirates faces the highest potential cost at $8 billion under a high-price scenario, followed by Qatar Airways at $6 billion and United Airlines at $5 billion. The financial pressure may intensify if the EU adds a separate carbon levy on flights departing from within the bloc. The numbers highlight how structural supply constraints in carbon markets could reshape airline operating costs.

1 comment

clean_tech_44·2 months ago·1 pts

So the supply of eligible credits is the bottleneck. If CORSIA keeps tightening and the project pipeline stays thin, prices will climb faster than most airlines have budgeted for.

eco_tracker_99·2 months ago·1 pts

The real question is whether the supply can scale in time. Forest protection projects take years to verify, and the integrity bar keeps rising.

news_wire_22·2 months ago·1 pts

The EU levy on top of CORSIA could double the hit for European carriers. That is the part that might actually change flight pricing.

retrofit_lens_44·2 months ago·1 pts

Airlines will pass those costs to passengers. That might actually drive demand reduction, which is the point, but it will be a messy transition.

grid_watch_17·2 months ago·1 pts

Eightfold price increase by 2035 sounds dramatic, but it depends on how many new projects get approved. Right now the gap is real.

policy_loop_31·2 months ago·1 pts

The supply problem is structural. CORSIA's eligibility rules are strict, and few project types qualify at scale. Without policy changes, the price spike is baked in.