A new study from Rice University estimates that U.S. data center power capacity could jump from 40 GW in 2025 to 169 GW by 2030, driving annual CO2 emissions from 90 million to over 404 million metric tons. The research, published in Energy & Fuels, looks at whether carbon capture and storage in saline aquifers can offset those emissions. It finds that 34 states have enough underground storage capacity to hold more than 100 years of projected data center CO2 beyond 2030. When out of state storage is included, over 90% of data center emissions could be captured. The study focuses on natural gas combined cycle plants with carbon capture as a near term option for low carbon power. It notes that many data center growth areas sit near saline aquifers suitable for long term storage. The authors say the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states like Texas, Virginia, and Pennsylvania where data center demand is rising fastest. The analysis is conservative, only including publicly announced power requirements and assuming state grid mixes stay constant through 2030.
