2026 FIFA World Cup emissions could match a small country: fan travel is the main driver

A new study from the University of Cambridge estimates the 2026 FIFA World Cup could emit 4.23 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, roughly equal to the annual emissions of a small country. Fan travel, especially international flights, accounts for 82 percent of that total. The tournament's expansion from 32 to 48 teams adds about 594,000 tonnes of emissions. The research proposes a framework where event organizers share responsibility for audience travel emissions. Options include higher ticket prices with rebates for low-carbon travel, or a per-viewer fee to cover climate costs. The study also found that Coldplay's 2024 European tour cut emissions by 46 percent largely through fan travel changes, not just operational fixes. For carbon market participants, the analysis highlights how scope 3 emissions from audience behavior dominate mega-event footprints. It also raises questions about how carbon pricing and offset mechanisms could apply to entertainment events, potentially creating new demand for verified carbon credits if organizers choose offsets as a last resort after direct reductions.