An independent analysis from carbon accounting platform Greenly estimates the 2026 FIFA World Cup could emit 7.8 million metric tons of CO2, more than double the official figure for the 2022 tournament in Qatar. The main driver is spectator travel, which accounts for 87% of projected emissions. International fans, expected to make up 35% of attendees, will generate 74% of travel-related emissions due to long flights between 16 host cities across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Infrastructure emissions are expected to drop sharply because the 2026 tournament will use mostly existing stadiums, unlike Qatar which built seven new venues. Hotel emissions in North America are also estimated to be about six times lower than in Qatar, which relied heavily on air conditioning. However, the sheer scale of the event with 48 teams and 104 matches overwhelms those efficiency gains. FIFA committed in 2021 to cutting emissions 50% by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2040. But the 2026 sustainability strategy does not set a specific carbon target for the tournament, and it excludes spectator travel from its formal accounting. Critics say this gap makes the stated goals hard to take seriously.
