The fourth Indicators of Global Climate Change report, published in Earth System Science Data, concludes that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is 130 billion tonnes. At current global emissions of 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year, that budget will be exhausted in three years. Human-induced warming reached 1.37 degrees Celsius in 2025, and the report puts the Paris Agreement breach on a calendar date around 2030. The report tracks CO2 concentrations at 425.6 ppm, sea level rise accelerating, and marine heatwave days more than tripling since 1991. The authors include scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries. The implied emissions reduction needed to stay within the budget is roughly 7 percent compounded annually, a level no major economy has achieved. The report is designed as an annual update to the IPCC assessment cycle, giving policymakers and markets a real-time scorecard on the gap between pledges and physical reality.
